ES Troyes AC scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities ES Troyes AC 45.1% · Draw 24.7% · Le Mans FC 30.2% Why ES Troyes AC is favoured Elo essentially level (1471 vs 1481) — winner depends on context. Recent: ES Troyes AC 1W-2D-5L · Le Mans FC 1W-4D-3L (last 8). Goal differential per game: ES Troyes AC -1.4, Le Mans FC -0.6. Form depth ES Troyes AC: avg 0.6 goals scored, 2.0 conceded per game (0/4 at home, 1/4 on the road). Le Mans FC: avg 1.4 goals scored, 2.0 conceded per game (1/4 at home, 0/4 on the road). Goals expectation Model expects ~3.0 total goals (ES Troyes AC 1.3, Le Mans FC 1.7) — above the 2.5-goal mid line. But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (20%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Head-to-head 3 prior meetings — ES Troyes AC 0W, 3D, Le Mans FC 0W (draws are common). Calibration Raw model: 46.4% home · Platt-calibrated down to 45.1% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (20% sample-size confidence); this is a low-conviction match overall — bet only with strong reason from outside the model.