Botafogo FR scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Botafogo FR 29.7% · Draw 22.5% · CA Mineiro 47.8% Why CA Mineiro is favoured CA Mineiro's Elo (1556) is +90 over Botafogo FR (1466); high confidence. Recent: Botafogo FR 2W-3D-5L · CA Mineiro 5W-2D-3L (last 10). Goal differential per game: Botafogo FR -0.8, CA Mineiro +0.2. Form depth Botafogo FR: avg 0.8 goals scored, 1.6 conceded per game (2/5 at home, 0/5 on the road). CA Mineiro: avg 1.4 goals scored, 1.2 conceded per game (5/7 at home, 0/3 on the road). Botafogo FR on a 2-match losing streak. CA Mineiro on a 2-match losing streak. Goals expectation Model expects ~2.5 total goals (Botafogo FR 1.0, CA Mineiro 1.5) — right around 2.5. Head-to-head 2 prior meetings — Botafogo FR 0W, 2D, CA Mineiro 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 1-1, 1-0, 1-0. Calibration Raw model: 33.4% home · Platt-calibrated down to 29.7% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches.