SE Palmeiras scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities SE Palmeiras 67.6% · Draw 18.8% · Clube do Remo 13.7% Why SE Palmeiras is favoured SE Palmeiras's Elo (1607) is +147 over Clube do Remo (1460); high confidence. Recent: SE Palmeiras 7W-3D-0L · Clube do Remo 1W-3D-6L (last 10). Goal differential per game: SE Palmeiras +1.2, Clube do Remo -0.5. Form depth SE Palmeiras: avg 2.4 goals scored, 1.2 conceded per game (5/5 at home, 2/5 on the road). Clube do Remo: avg 0.9 goals scored, 1.4 conceded per game (1/6 at home, 0/4 on the road). Goals expectation Model expects ~3.0 total goals (SE Palmeiras 1.9, Clube do Remo 1.1) — above the 2.5-goal mid line. Head-to-head 1 prior meetings — SE Palmeiras 0W, 1D, Clube do Remo 0W (draws are common). Last 1: 1-1. Calibration Raw model: 65.7% home · Platt-calibrated up to 67.6% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches.