Daily ticket history

Every variant ticket the auto-picker has generated, graded after kickoff. Hit rate is won ÷ decided; P/L assumes a flat $100 stake per ticket. Pending and void tickets are excluded from the P/L until they settle. No cherry-picking.

Sample: 2026-05-05 → 2026-09-11 · 214 tickets

← back to tomorrow's slate See per-prediction accuracy →Walk-forward backtest (full history) →

Overall

Tickets graded

128

86 pending

Hit rate

25.8%

33 W · 95 L

Net P/L @ $100/ticket

+$2,971

staked $12,800

ROI

23.2%

Stabilised sample

Calibration signals

The auto-calibrator walks per-tier ROI weekly. Tiers with sustained losing P/L get tightened (higher prob floor, narrower odds window); tiers with heavy losing P/L get disabled. Acts only on samples ≥30 — below that, variance dominates.

Safedefault

insufficient data

Need 7 more graded tickets before calibrating (23/30).

Sample: 23
ROI: 7.0%
Effective override: code defaults
Last calibrated: —

Balanceddefault

insufficient data

Need 6 more graded tickets before calibrating (24/30).

Sample: 24
ROI: 33.0%
Effective override: code defaults
Last calibrated: —

Best calibrateddefault

hold

ROI 40.1% over 45 graded tickets — within tolerance; holding params steady.

Sample: 45
ROI: 40.1%
Effective override: code defaults
Last calibrated: —

Aggressivedefault

insufficient data

Need 8 more graded tickets before calibrating (22/30).

Sample: 22
ROI: 73.3%
Effective override: code defaults
Last calibrated: —

Longshotdefault

insufficient data

Need 16 more graded tickets before calibrating (14/30).

Sample: 14
ROI: -100.0%
Effective override: code defaults
Last calibrated: —

By tier

Safe7% roi

Tickets: 38
Decided: 23
W / L: 17 / 6
Hit rate: 74%
Avg odds: 1.63x
Staked: $2,300
Returned: $2,460
Net: +$160

Balanced33% roi

Tickets: 45
Decided: 24
W / L: 3 / 21
Hit rate: 13%
Avg odds: 10.96x
Staked: $2,400
Returned: $3,193
Net: +$793

Best calibrated40% roi

Tickets: 73
Decided: 45
W / L: 11 / 34
Hit rate: 24%
Avg odds: 6.11x
Staked: $4,500
Returned: $6,305
Net: +$1,805

Aggressive73% roi

Tickets: 36
Decided: 22
W / L: 2 / 20
Hit rate: 9%
Avg odds: 18.87x
Staked: $2,200
Returned: $3,813
Net: +$1,613

Longshot-100% roi

Tickets: 22
Decided: 14
W / L: 0 / 14
Hit rate: 0%
Avg odds: 36.03x
Staked: $1,400
Returned: $0
Net: −$1,400

Staked / Returned / Net assume a flat $100 per ticket. Pending and void tickets are excluded from those columns until they settle.

Recent tickets

2026-09-11Aggressivepending
—
Legs
5
Odds
21.36x
Implied
5%
2026-09-11Balancedpending
—
Legs
4
Odds
10.23x
Implied
10%
2026-09-11Best calibratedpending
—
Legs
3
Odds
5.09x
Implied
20%
2026-09-11Longshotpending
—
Legs
6
Odds
42.93x
Implied
2%
2026-09-10Best calibratedpending
—
Legs
5
Odds
5.29x
Implied
19%
2026-09-10Safepending
—
Legs
1
Odds
1.47x
Implied
68%
2026-09-09Balancedpending
—
Legs
6
Odds
10.88x
Implied
9%
2026-09-09Best calibratedpending
—
Legs
4
Odds
5.02x
Implied
20%
2026-09-09SafeWON
+$47
Legs
1
Odds
1.47x
Implied
68%
2026-09-08AggressiveLOST
−$100
Legs
5
Odds
22.66x
Implied
4%
2026-09-08BalancedLOST
−$100
Legs
4
Odds
10.35x
Implied
10%
2026-09-08Best calibratedWON
+$414
Legs
3
Odds
5.13x
Implied
19%
2026-09-08SafeWON
+$50
Legs
1
Odds
1.50x
Implied
67%
2026-09-06Aggressivepending
—
Legs
5
Odds
18.26x
Implied
5%
2026-09-06BalancedLOST
−$100
Legs
3
Odds
10.01x
Implied
10%
2026-09-06Best calibratedpending
—
Legs
3
Odds
5.16x
Implied
19%
2026-09-06Longshotpending
—
Legs
6
Odds
32.04x
Implied
3%
2026-09-06SafeWON
+$52
Legs
1
Odds
1.52x
Implied
66%
2026-09-05Aggressivepending
—
Legs
6
Odds
18.00x
Implied
6%
2026-09-05Balancedpending
—
Legs
5
Odds
10.00x
Implied
10%
2026-09-05Best calibratedpending
—
Legs
3
Odds
5.00x
Implied
20%
2026-09-05Safepending
—
Legs
1
Odds
1.42x
Implied
71%
2026-09-04Balancedpending
—
Legs
6
Odds
10.00x
Implied
10%
2026-09-04Best calibratedpending
—
Legs
5
Odds
5.00x
Implied
20%
2026-09-04Safepending
—
Legs
1
Odds
1.41x
Implied
71%
2026-09-03Balancedpending
—
Legs
6
Odds
10.03x
Implied
10%
2026-09-03Best calibratedLOST
−$100
Legs
5
Odds
5.00x
Implied
20%
2026-09-03Safepending
—
Legs
1
Odds
1.43x
Implied
70%
2026-09-02Aggressivepending
—
Legs
6
Odds
18.02x
Implied
6%
2026-09-02Balancedpending
—
Legs
6
Odds
10.00x
Implied
10%
2026-09-02Best calibratedpending
—
Legs
4
Odds
5.00x
Implied
20%
2026-09-02Safepending
—
Legs
1
Odds
1.44x
Implied
70%
2026-09-01Balancedpending
—
Legs
6
Odds
10.00x
Implied
10%
2026-09-01Best calibratedpending
—
Legs
5
Odds
5.00x
Implied
20%
2026-09-01SafeWON
+$41
Legs
1
Odds
1.41x
Implied
71%
2026-08-31AggressiveWON
+$1,893
Legs
5
Odds
19.93x
Implied
5%
2026-08-31BalancedWON
+$933
Legs
4
Odds
10.33x
Implied
10%
2026-08-31Best calibratedWON
+$404
Legs
3
Odds
5.04x
Implied
20%
2026-08-31SafeWON
+$42
Legs
1
Odds
1.42x
Implied
71%
2026-08-30Aggressivepending
—
Legs
5
Odds
18.07x
Implied
6%
2026-08-30Balancedpending
—
Legs
4
Odds
10.02x
Implied
10%
2026-08-30Best calibratedpending
—
Legs
3
Odds
5.04x
Implied
20%
2026-08-30Longshotpending
—
Legs
6
Odds
33.39x
Implied
3%
2026-08-30Safepending
—
Legs
1
Odds
1.48x
Implied
68%
2026-08-29Balancedpending
—
Legs
4
Odds
15.05x
Implied
7%
2026-08-29Best calibratedpending
—
Legs
3
Odds
6.83x
Implied
15%
2026-08-28Aggressivepending
—
Legs
5
Odds
19.74x
Implied
5%
2026-08-28Balancedpending
—
Legs
4
Odds
10.10x
Implied
10%
2026-08-28Best calibratedpending
—
Legs
3
Odds
5.00x
Implied
20%
2026-08-28SafeWON
+$45
Legs
1
Odds
1.45x
Implied
69%
2026-08-23AggressiveLOST
−$100
Legs
5
Odds
19.10x
Implied
5%
2026-08-23BalancedLOST
−$100
Legs
4
Odds
10.29x
Implied
10%
2026-08-23Best calibratedLOST
−$100
Legs
3
Odds
5.06x
Implied
20%
2026-08-23LongshotLOST
−$100
Legs
6
Odds
32.59x
Implied
3%
2026-08-23SafeLOST
−$100
Legs
1
Odds
1.50x
Implied
67%
2026-08-22AggressiveLOST
−$100
Legs
5
Odds
18.08x
Implied
6%
2026-08-22BalancedLOST
−$100
Legs
3
Odds
10.02x
Implied
10%
2026-08-22Best calibratedLOST
−$100
Legs
3
Odds
5.59x
Implied
18%
2026-08-22LongshotLOST
−$100
Legs
5
Odds
35.67x
Implied
3%
2026-08-21AggressiveLOST
−$100
Legs
4
Odds
18.16x
Implied
6%

Showing the 60 most recent tickets. Older history is included in the per-tier aggregates above.

Reading this honestly

Hit rate stabilises around ~30 graded tickets per tier. Below that, variance dominates the number; don't over-read the tier with 3 tickets.
A negative ROI on Longshot is expected — that tier is a variance play. The honest test is total ROI across all tiers, not whether Longshot loses money individually.
Safe is now a single-leg high-confidence pick — no parlay vig stacking. The old 4-leg-Safe was a sucker bet; this version is what "safe" actually means.