Daily ticket history

Every variant ticket the auto-picker has generated, graded after kickoff. Hit rate is won ÷ decided; P/L assumes a flat $100 stake per ticket. Pending and void tickets are excluded from the P/L until they settle. No cherry-picking.

Sample: 2026-05-05 → 2026-07-26 · 117 tickets

← back to tomorrow's slate See per-prediction accuracy →Walk-forward backtest (full history) →

Overall

Tickets graded

31 pending

Hit rate

17.4%

15 W · 71 L

Net P/L @ $100/ticket

+$742

staked $8,600

ROI

8.6%

Stabilised sample

Calibration signals

The auto-calibrator walks per-tier ROI weekly. Tiers with sustained losing P/L get tightened (higher prob floor, narrower odds window); tiers with heavy losing P/L get disabled. Acts only on samples ≥30 — below that, variance dominates.

Safedefault

insufficient data

Need 23 more graded tickets before calibrating (7/30).

Sample: 7
ROI: -18.0%
Effective override: code defaults
Last calibrated: —

Balanceddefault

insufficient data

Need 13 more graded tickets before calibrating (17/30).

Sample: 17
ROI: 27.1%
Effective override: code defaults
Last calibrated: —

Best calibrateddefault

hold

ROI 40.8% over 34 graded tickets — within tolerance; holding params steady.

Sample: 34
ROI: 40.8%
Effective override: code defaults
Last calibrated: —

Aggressivedefault

insufficient data

Need 13 more graded tickets before calibrating (17/30).

Sample: 17
ROI: 7.1%
Effective override: code defaults
Last calibrated: —

Longshotdefault

insufficient data

Need 19 more graded tickets before calibrating (11/30).

Sample: 11
ROI: -100.0%
Effective override: code defaults
Last calibrated: —

By tier

Safe-18% roi

Tickets: 11
Decided: 7
W / L: 4 / 3
Hit rate: 57%
Avg odds: 2.09x
Staked: $700
Returned: $574
Net: −$126

Balanced27% roi

Tickets: 24
Decided: 17
W / L: 2 / 15
Hit rate: 12%
Avg odds: 11.45x
Staked: $1,700
Returned: $2,160
Net: +$460

Best calibrated41% roi

Tickets: 42
Decided: 34
W / L: 8 / 26
Hit rate: 24%
Avg odds: 6.84x
Staked: $3,400
Returned: $4,788
Net: +$1,388

Aggressive7% roi

Tickets: 24
Decided: 17
W / L: 1 / 16
Hit rate: 6%
Avg odds: 18.73x
Staked: $1,700
Returned: $1,821
Net: +$121

Longshot-100% roi

Tickets: 16
Decided: 11
W / L: 0 / 11
Hit rate: 0%
Avg odds: 36.48x
Staked: $1,100
Returned: $0
Net: −$1,100

Staked / Returned / Net assume a flat $100 per ticket. Pending and void tickets are excluded from those columns until they settle.

Recent tickets

2026-07-26AggressiveLOST
−$100
Legs
4
Odds
19.06x
Implied
5%
2026-07-26BalancedLOST
−$100
Legs
3
Odds
10.08x
Implied
10%
2026-07-26Best calibratedLOST
−$100
Legs
3
Odds
7.61x
Implied
13%
2026-07-26LongshotLOST
−$100
Legs
5
Odds
36.22x
Implied
3%
2026-07-25Best calibratedLOST
−$100
Legs
3
Odds
7.16x
Implied
14%
2026-07-03Best calibratedLOST
−$100
Legs
3
Odds
7.27x
Implied
14%
2026-07-02Best calibratedWON
+$546
Legs
3
Odds
6.46x
Implied
15%
2026-07-01Best calibratedWON
+$554
Legs
3
Odds
6.54x
Implied
15%
2026-06-30Best calibratedWON
+$471
Legs
3
Odds
5.71x
Implied
18%
2026-06-30BalancedLOST
−$100
Legs
4
Odds
11.77x
Implied
8%
2026-06-29Best calibratedLOST
−$100
Legs
3
Odds
7.30x
Implied
14%
2026-06-29BalancedLOST
−$100
Legs
4
Odds
15.04x
Implied
7%
2026-06-27Best calibratedLOST
−$100
Legs
3
Odds
8.05x
Implied
12%
2026-06-26Best calibratedLOST
−$100
Legs
3
Odds
7.40x
Implied
14%
2026-06-26BalancedLOST
−$100
Legs
4
Odds
15.63x
Implied
6%
2026-06-25Best calibratedLOST
−$100
Legs
3
Odds
8.97x
Implied
11%
2026-06-24Best calibratedWON
+$663
Legs
3
Odds
7.63x
Implied
13%
2026-06-23BalancedLOST
−$100
Legs
4
Odds
14.96x
Implied
7%
2026-06-23Best calibratedLOST
−$100
Legs
3
Odds
7.26x
Implied
14%
2026-06-22BalancedWON
+$1,060
Legs
4
Odds
11.60x
Implied
9%
2026-06-22AggressiveLOST
−$100
Legs
5
Odds
23.92x
Implied
4%
2026-06-22Best calibratedWON
+$462
Legs
3
Odds
5.62x
Implied
18%
2026-06-21LongshotLOST
−$100
Legs
5
Odds
39.55x
Implied
3%
2026-06-21Best calibratedLOST
−$100
Legs
3
Odds
9.03x
Implied
11%
2026-06-21AggressiveLOST
−$100
Legs
4
Odds
18.90x
Implied
5%
2026-06-20Best calibratedLOST
−$100
Legs
3
Odds
8.26x
Implied
12%
2026-06-19Best calibratedLOST
−$100
Legs
3
Odds
7.38x
Implied
14%
2026-06-19BalancedLOST
−$100
Legs
4
Odds
15.30x
Implied
7%
2026-06-18Best calibratedLOST
−$100
Legs
3
Odds
8.89x
Implied
11%
2026-06-18AggressiveLOST
−$100
Legs
4
Odds
18.71x
Implied
5%
2026-06-17Best calibratedLOST
−$100
Legs
3
Odds
9.03x
Implied
11%
2026-06-17LongshotLOST
−$100
Legs
5
Odds
39.52x
Implied
3%
2026-06-17AggressiveLOST
−$100
Legs
4
Odds
18.89x
Implied
5%
2026-06-16AggressiveLOST
−$100
Legs
4
Odds
19.17x
Implied
5%
2026-06-16Best calibratedLOST
−$100
Legs
3
Odds
9.16x
Implied
11%
2026-06-16LongshotLOST
−$100
Legs
5
Odds
40.12x
Implied
2%
2026-06-15AggressiveLOST
−$100
Legs
4
Odds
18.91x
Implied
5%
2026-06-15Best calibratedLOST
−$100
Legs
3
Odds
9.04x
Implied
11%
2026-06-14LongshotLOST
−$100
Legs
5
Odds
40.12x
Implied
2%
2026-06-14Best calibratedLOST
−$100
Legs
3
Odds
9.16x
Implied
11%
2026-06-14AggressiveLOST
−$100
Legs
4
Odds
19.17x
Implied
5%
2026-06-13Best calibratedLOST
−$100
Legs
3
Odds
5.69x
Implied
18%
2026-06-13LongshotLOST
−$100
Legs
6
Odds
52.11x
Implied
2%
2026-06-13BalancedLOST
−$100
Legs
4
Odds
11.90x
Implied
8%
2026-06-13AggressiveLOST
−$100
Legs
4
Odds
19.17x
Implied
5%
2026-05-31BalancedLOST
−$100
Legs
4
Odds
14.81x
Implied
7%
2026-05-31Best calibratedLOST
−$100
Legs
3
Odds
7.11x
Implied
14%
2026-05-28Best calibratedLOST
−$100
Legs
3
Odds
7.15x
Implied
14%
2026-05-27Best calibratedLOST
−$100
Legs
3
Odds
9.20x
Implied
11%
2026-05-26BalancedLOST
−$100
Legs
4
Odds
13.09x
Implied
8%
2026-05-26Best calibratedWON
+$489
Legs
3
Odds
5.89x
Implied
17%
2026-05-24BalancedLOST
−$100
Legs
4
Odds
10.01x
Implied
10%
2026-05-24SafeWON
+$47
Legs
1
Odds
1.47x
Implied
68%
2026-05-24AggressiveLOST
−$100
Legs
4
Odds
18.00x
Implied
6%
2026-05-24Best calibratedWON
+$402
Legs
3
Odds
5.02x
Implied
20%
2026-05-24LongshotLOST
−$100
Legs
6
Odds
32.01x
Implied
3%
2026-05-23AggressiveLOST
−$100
Legs
6
Odds
18.00x
Implied
6%
2026-05-23BalancedLOST
−$100
Legs
5
Odds
10.00x
Implied
10%
2026-05-23SafeWON
+$41
Legs
1
Odds
1.41x
Implied
71%
2026-05-23LongshotLOST
−$100
Legs
6
Odds
32.02x
Implied
3%

Showing the 60 most recent tickets. Older history is included in the per-tier aggregates above.

Reading this honestly

Hit rate stabilises around ~30 graded tickets per tier. Below that, variance dominates the number; don't over-read the tier with 3 tickets.
A negative ROI on Longshot is expected — that tier is a variance play. The honest test is total ROI across all tiers, not whether Longshot loses money individually.
Safe is now a single-leg high-confidence pick — no parlay vig stacking. The old 4-leg-Safe was a sucker bet; this version is what "safe" actually means.