Daily ticket history

Every variant ticket the auto-picker has generated, graded after kickoff. Hit rate is won ÷ decided; P/L assumes a flat $100 stake per ticket. Pending and void tickets are excluded from the P/L until they settle. No cherry-picking.

Sample: 2026-05-05 → 2026-11-03 · 316 tickets

← back to tomorrow's slate See per-prediction accuracy →Walk-forward backtest (full history) →

Overall

Tickets graded

154

162 pending

Hit rate

27.3%

42 W · 112 L

Net P/L @ $100/ticket

+$2,095

staked $15,400

ROI

13.6%

Stabilised sample

Calibration signals

The auto-calibrator walks per-tier ROI weekly. Tiers with sustained losing P/L get tightened (higher prob floor, narrower odds window); tiers with heavy losing P/L get disabled. Acts only on samples ≥30 — below that, variance dominates.

Safedefault

hold

ROI 6.2% over 34 graded tickets — within tolerance; holding params steady.

Sample: 34
ROI: 6.2%
Effective override: code defaults
Last calibrated: —

Balanceddefault

insufficient data

Need 2 more graded tickets before calibrating (28/30).

Sample: 28
ROI: 14.0%
Effective override: code defaults
Last calibrated: —

Best calibrateddefault

hold

ROI 22.8% over 56 graded tickets — within tolerance; holding params steady.

Sample: 56
ROI: 22.8%
Effective override: code defaults
Last calibrated: —

Aggressivedefault

insufficient data

Need 8 more graded tickets before calibrating (22/30).

Sample: 22
ROI: 73.3%
Effective override: code defaults
Last calibrated: —

Longshotdefault

insufficient data

Need 16 more graded tickets before calibrating (14/30).

Sample: 14
ROI: -100.0%
Effective override: code defaults
Last calibrated: —

By tier

Safe6% roi

Tickets: 64
Decided: 34
W / L: 25 / 9
Hit rate: 74%
Avg odds: 1.55x
Staked: $3,400
Returned: $3,609
Net: +$209

Balanced14% roi

Tickets: 69
Decided: 28
W / L: 3 / 25
Hit rate: 11%
Avg odds: 10.75x
Staked: $2,800
Returned: $3,193
Net: +$393

Best calibrated23% roi

Tickets: 104
Decided: 56
W / L: 12 / 44
Hit rate: 21%
Avg odds: 5.80x
Staked: $5,600
Returned: $6,879
Net: +$1,279

Aggressive73% roi

Tickets: 49
Decided: 22
W / L: 2 / 20
Hit rate: 9%
Avg odds: 18.74x
Staked: $2,200
Returned: $3,813
Net: +$1,613

Longshot-100% roi

Tickets: 30
Decided: 14
W / L: 0 / 14
Hit rate: 0%
Avg odds: 35.43x
Staked: $1,400
Returned: $0
Net: −$1,400

Staked / Returned / Net assume a flat $100 per ticket. Pending and void tickets are excluded from those columns until they settle.

Recent tickets

2026-11-03Safepending
—
Legs
1
Odds
1.41x
Implied
71%
2026-11-03Best calibratedpending
—
Legs
6
Odds
5.00x
Implied
20%
2026-11-02Safepending
—
Legs
1
Odds
1.41x
Implied
71%
2026-11-02Best calibratedpending
—
Legs
5
Odds
5.00x
Implied
20%
2026-11-02Balancedpending
—
Legs
6
Odds
10.00x
Implied
10%
2026-11-01Safepending
—
Legs
1
Odds
1.41x
Implied
71%
2026-11-01Best calibratedpending
—
Legs
5
Odds
5.00x
Implied
20%
2026-11-01Balancedpending
—
Legs
6
Odds
10.04x
Implied
10%
2026-10-31Safepending
—
Legs
1
Odds
1.42x
Implied
70%
2026-10-31Longshotpending
—
Legs
6
Odds
33.19x
Implied
3%
2026-10-31Best calibratedpending
—
Legs
5
Odds
5.01x
Implied
20%
2026-10-31Balancedpending
—
Legs
5
Odds
10.02x
Implied
10%
2026-10-31Aggressivepending
—
Legs
6
Odds
18.01x
Implied
6%
2026-10-30Safepending
—
Legs
1
Odds
1.42x
Implied
71%
2026-10-30Best calibratedpending
—
Legs
6
Odds
5.00x
Implied
20%
2026-10-30Balancedpending
—
Legs
6
Odds
10.00x
Implied
10%
2026-10-29Safepending
—
Legs
1
Odds
1.46x
Implied
68%
2026-10-29Best calibratedpending
—
Legs
3
Odds
5.04x
Implied
20%
2026-10-28Safepending
—
Legs
1
Odds
1.46x
Implied
68%
2026-10-28Best calibratedpending
—
Legs
5
Odds
5.00x
Implied
20%
2026-10-28Balancedpending
—
Legs
6
Odds
10.03x
Implied
10%
2026-10-27Safepending
—
Legs
1
Odds
1.42x
Implied
70%
2026-10-27Best calibratedpending
—
Legs
4
Odds
5.30x
Implied
19%
2026-10-26Safepending
—
Legs
1
Odds
1.43x
Implied
70%
2026-10-26Best calibratedpending
—
Legs
3
Odds
5.15x
Implied
19%
2026-10-26Balancedpending
—
Legs
5
Odds
11.93x
Implied
8%
2026-10-25Longshotpending
—
Legs
6
Odds
32.01x
Implied
3%
2026-10-25Best calibratedpending
—
Legs
4
Odds
5.01x
Implied
20%
2026-10-25Balancedpending
—
Legs
6
Odds
10.01x
Implied
10%
2026-10-25Aggressivepending
—
Legs
6
Odds
18.01x
Implied
6%
2026-10-24Safepending
—
Legs
1
Odds
1.41x
Implied
71%
2026-10-24Best calibratedpending
—
Legs
5
Odds
5.00x
Implied
20%
2026-10-24Balancedpending
—
Legs
6
Odds
10.00x
Implied
10%
2026-10-24Aggressivepending
—
Legs
6
Odds
18.00x
Implied
6%
2026-10-23Safepending
—
Legs
1
Odds
1.41x
Implied
71%
2026-10-23Best calibratedpending
—
Legs
4
Odds
5.00x
Implied
20%
2026-10-23Balancedpending
—
Legs
5
Odds
10.00x
Implied
10%
2026-10-23Aggressivepending
—
Legs
6
Odds
18.00x
Implied
6%
2026-10-20Safepending
—
Legs
1
Odds
1.41x
Implied
71%
2026-10-20Best calibratedpending
—
Legs
4
Odds
5.00x
Implied
20%
2026-10-20Balancedpending
—
Legs
5
Odds
10.00x
Implied
10%
2026-10-20Aggressivepending
—
Legs
6
Odds
18.05x
Implied
6%
2026-10-18Safepending
—
Legs
1
Odds
1.49x
Implied
67%
2026-10-18Longshotpending
—
Legs
6
Odds
32.04x
Implied
3%
2026-10-18Best calibratedpending
—
Legs
3
Odds
5.00x
Implied
20%
2026-10-18Balancedpending
—
Legs
5
Odds
10.00x
Implied
10%
2026-10-18Aggressivepending
—
Legs
6
Odds
18.00x
Implied
6%
2026-10-17Safepending
—
Legs
1
Odds
1.46x
Implied
68%
2026-10-17Best calibratedpending
—
Legs
4
Odds
5.01x
Implied
20%
2026-10-17Balancedpending
—
Legs
5
Odds
10.02x
Implied
10%
2026-10-16Safepending
—
Legs
1
Odds
1.46x
Implied
68%
2026-10-16Best calibratedpending
—
Legs
4
Odds
5.01x
Implied
20%
2026-10-16Balancedpending
—
Legs
5
Odds
10.05x
Implied
10%
2026-10-16Aggressivepending
—
Legs
6
Odds
18.15x
Implied
6%
2026-10-14SafeLOST
−$100
Legs
1
Odds
1.50x
Implied
67%
2026-10-14Best calibratedLOST
−$100
Legs
3
Odds
5.13x
Implied
20%
2026-10-14BalancedLOST
−$100
Legs
4
Odds
10.62x
Implied
9%
2026-10-13SafeLOST
−$100
Legs
1
Odds
1.43x
Implied
70%
2026-10-13Best calibratedLOST
−$100
Legs
4
Odds
5.21x
Implied
19%
2026-10-13BalancedLOST
−$100
Legs
6
Odds
13.62x
Implied
7%

Showing the 60 most recent tickets. Older history is included in the per-tier aggregates above.

Reading this honestly

Hit rate stabilises around ~30 graded tickets per tier. Below that, variance dominates the number; don't over-read the tier with 3 tickets.
A negative ROI on Longshot is expected — that tier is a variance play. The honest test is total ROI across all tiers, not whether Longshot loses money individually.
Safe is now a single-leg high-confidence pick — no parlay vig stacking. The old 4-leg-Safe was a sucker bet; this version is what "safe" actually means.