CA Paranaense scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities CA Paranaense 62.7% · Draw 20.4% · CR Vasco da Gama 17.0% Why CA Paranaense is favoured CA Paranaense's Elo (1559) is +105 over CR Vasco da Gama (1454); high confidence. Recent: CA Paranaense 3W-4D-3L · CR Vasco da Gama 5W-1D-4L (last 10). Goal differential per game: CA Paranaense -0.1, CR Vasco da Gama +0.2. Form depth CA Paranaense: avg 1.9 goals scored, 2.0 conceded per game (1/4 at home, 2/6 on the road). CR Vasco da Gama: avg 1.7 goals scored, 1.5 conceded per game (3/5 at home, 2/5 on the road). Goals expectation Model expects ~3.5 total goals (CA Paranaense 1.7, CR Vasco da Gama 1.9) — above the 2.5-goal mid line. But — counter-arguments CR Vasco da Gama has a stronger recent record (50% vs 30%) — model favours CA Paranaense on Elo + home advantage despite the form gap. Head-to-head 2 prior meetings — CA Paranaense 0W, 2D, CR Vasco da Gama 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 1-0, 2-1, 1-0. Calibration Raw model: 61.3% home · Platt-calibrated up to 62.7% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches.