Toulouse FC scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Toulouse FC 42.4% · Draw 24.5% · RC Strasbourg Alsace 33.2% Why Toulouse FC is favoured RC Strasbourg Alsace's Elo (1565) is +20 over Toulouse FC (1545); high confidence. Recent: Toulouse FC 2W-4D-3L · RC Strasbourg Alsace 3W-1D-5L (last 9). Goal differential per game: Toulouse FC -0.1, RC Strasbourg Alsace -0.2. Form depth Toulouse FC: avg 1.3 goals scored, 1.4 conceded per game (1/4 at home, 1/5 on the road). RC Strasbourg Alsace: avg 1.9 goals scored, 2.1 conceded per game (2/4 at home, 1/5 on the road). Goals expectation Model expects ~3.4 total goals (Toulouse FC 1.7, RC Strasbourg Alsace 1.7) — above the 2.5-goal mid line. Head-to-head 2 prior meetings — Toulouse FC 0W, 2D, RC Strasbourg Alsace 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 1-2, 1-0, 2-1. Calibration Raw model: 44.1% home · Platt-calibrated down to 42.4% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches.