São Paulo FC scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities São Paulo FC 56.5% · Draw 23.4% · SC Corinthians Paulista 20.1% Why São Paulo FC is favoured São Paulo FC's Elo (1476) is +28 over SC Corinthians Paulista (1448); high confidence. Recent: São Paulo FC 5W-1D-4L · SC Corinthians Paulista 1W-2D-7L (last 10). Goal differential per game: São Paulo FC +0.0, SC Corinthians Paulista -0.8. Form depth São Paulo FC: avg 1.2 goals scored, 1.2 conceded per game (5/6 at home, 0/4 on the road). SC Corinthians Paulista: avg 1.1 goals scored, 1.9 conceded per game (1/5 at home, 0/5 on the road). Goals expectation Model expects ~2.7 total goals (São Paulo FC 1.5, SC Corinthians Paulista 1.1) — right around 2.5. Head-to-head 3 prior meetings — São Paulo FC 0W, 3D, SC Corinthians Paulista 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 3-2, 3-1, 2-0.