CR Flamengo scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities CR Flamengo 69.2% · Draw 18.1% · Grêmio FBPA 12.7% Why CR Flamengo is favoured CR Flamengo's Elo (1625) is +166 over Grêmio FBPA (1459); high confidence. Recent: CR Flamengo 6W-3D-1L · Grêmio FBPA 3W-3D-4L (last 10). Goal differential per game: CR Flamengo +0.9, Grêmio FBPA +0.0. Form depth CR Flamengo: avg 2.0 goals scored, 1.1 conceded per game (4/6 at home, 2/4 on the road). Grêmio FBPA: avg 1.3 goals scored, 1.3 conceded per game (2/6 at home, 1/4 on the road). CR Flamengo on a 2-match winning streak. Grêmio FBPA on a 2-match winning streak. Goals expectation Model expects ~2.9 total goals (CR Flamengo 1.6, Grêmio FBPA 1.2) — above the 2.5-goal mid line. Head-to-head 2 prior meetings — CR Flamengo 0W, 2D, Grêmio FBPA 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 0-1, 1-1, 0-2. Calibration Raw model: 67.2% home · Platt-calibrated up to 69.2% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches.