AJ Auxerre scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities AJ Auxerre 43.3% · Draw 24.5% · Le Mans FC 32.2% Why AJ Auxerre is favoured Le Mans FC's Elo (1481) is +17 over AJ Auxerre (1464); low confidence. Recent: AJ Auxerre 3W-0D-4L · Le Mans FC 1W-3D-3L (last 7). Goal differential per game: AJ Auxerre -0.9, Le Mans FC -0.7. Form depth AJ Auxerre: avg 1.6 goals scored, 2.4 conceded per game (2/3 at home, 1/4 on the road). Le Mans FC: avg 1.4 goals scored, 2.1 conceded per game (1/4 at home, 0/3 on the road). Le Mans FC on a 2-match losing streak. Goals expectation Model expects ~3.8 total goals (AJ Auxerre 1.9, Le Mans FC 1.9) — above the 2.5-goal mid line. But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (20%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Head-to-head 1 prior meetings — AJ Auxerre 0W, 1D, Le Mans FC 0W (draws are common). Calibration Raw model: 44.8% home · Platt-calibrated down to 43.3% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (20% sample-size confidence); this is a low-conviction match overall — bet only with strong reason from outside the model.