Willem II Tilburg scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Willem II Tilburg 42.1% · Draw 24.3% · PEC Zwolle 33.6% Why Willem II Tilburg is favoured PEC Zwolle's Elo (1441) is +25 over Willem II Tilburg (1416); low confidence. Recent: Willem II Tilburg 0W-2D-8L · PEC Zwolle 3W-2D-5L (last 10). Goal differential per game: Willem II Tilburg -2.6, PEC Zwolle -0.9. Form depth Willem II Tilburg: avg 0.9 goals scored, 3.5 conceded per game (0/5 at home, 0/5 on the road). PEC Zwolle: avg 1.2 goals scored, 2.1 conceded per game (2/5 at home, 1/5 on the road). Willem II Tilburg on a 6-match losing streak. Goals expectation Model expects ~3.9 total goals (Willem II Tilburg 1.5, PEC Zwolle 2.4) — above the 2.5-goal mid line. But — counter-arguments PEC Zwolle has a stronger recent record (30% vs 0%) — model favours Willem II Tilburg on Elo + home advantage despite the form gap. Elo confidence is low (25%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Head-to-head 3 prior meetings — Willem II Tilburg 0W, 3D, PEC Zwolle 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 1-2, 0-1, 2-0. Calibration Raw model: 43.8% home · Platt-calibrated down to 42.1% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (25% sample-size confidence); this is a low-conviction match overall — bet only with strong reason from outside the model.