Cruzeiro EC scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Cruzeiro EC 44.7% · Draw 25.0% · EC Bahia 30.3% Why Cruzeiro EC is favoured Elo essentially level (1539 vs 1540) — winner depends on context. Recent: Cruzeiro EC 7W-0D-3L · EC Bahia 6W-1D-3L (last 10). Goal differential per game: Cruzeiro EC +0.6, EC Bahia +0.2. Form depth Cruzeiro EC: avg 2.0 goals scored, 1.4 conceded per game (4/4 at home, 3/6 on the road). EC Bahia: avg 1.6 goals scored, 1.4 conceded per game (4/5 at home, 2/5 on the road). Cruzeiro EC on a 3-match winning streak. Goals expectation Model expects ~3.2 total goals (Cruzeiro EC 1.7, EC Bahia 1.5) — above the 2.5-goal mid line. Head-to-head 3 prior meetings — Cruzeiro EC 0W, 3D, EC Bahia 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 1-2, 1-2, 3-0. Calibration Raw model: 46.0% home · Platt-calibrated down to 44.7% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches.