SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden 30.9% · Draw 23.2% · Go Ahead Eagles 45.8% Why Go Ahead Eagles is favoured Go Ahead Eagles's Elo (1500) is +69 over SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden (1431); low confidence. Recent: SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden 3W-3D-4L · Go Ahead Eagles 3W-5D-2L (last 10). Goal differential per game: SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden -0.3, Go Ahead Eagles +0.0. Form depth SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden: avg 1.9 goals scored, 2.2 conceded per game (1/5 at home, 2/5 on the road). Go Ahead Eagles: avg 2.3 goals scored, 2.3 conceded per game (3/5 at home, 0/5 on the road). Goals expectation Model expects ~4.3 total goals (SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden 2.1, Go Ahead Eagles 2.3) — above the 2.5-goal mid line. But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (20%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Head-to-head 3 prior meetings — SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden 0W, 3D, Go Ahead Eagles 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 4-1, 0-0, 3-0. Calibration Raw model: 34.4% home · Platt-calibrated down to 30.9% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (20% sample-size confidence); this is a low-conviction match overall — bet only with strong reason from outside the model.