Fenerbahçe SK scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Fenerbahçe SK 20.6% · Draw 23.0% · Liverpool FC 56.4% Why Liverpool FC is favoured Liverpool FC's Elo (1665) is +181 over Fenerbahçe SK (1484); low confidence. Recent: Fenerbahçe SK 0W-2D-1L · Liverpool FC 7W-1D-2L (last 10). Goal differential per game: Fenerbahçe SK -2.0, Liverpool FC +0.7. Form depth Fenerbahçe SK: avg 1.0 goals scored, 3.0 conceded per game (0/2 at home, 0/1 on the road). Liverpool FC: avg 1.9 goals scored, 1.2 conceded per game (3/6 at home, 4/4 on the road). Goals expectation Model expects ~3.6 total goals (Fenerbahçe SK 1.1, Liverpool FC 2.5) — above the 2.5-goal mid line. But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (10%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Context Liverpool FC has 6 more days of rest (Fenerbahçe SK 54d, Liverpool FC 60d). Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (10% sample-size confidence); headline number is sharper than the underlying signal — treat it as directional, not absolute.