Borussia Dortmund scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Borussia Dortmund 53.0% · Draw 22.2% · Real Betis Balompié 24.8% Why Borussia Dortmund is favoured Borussia Dortmund's Elo (1660) is +19 over Real Betis Balompié (1640); high confidence. Recent: Borussia Dortmund 6W-3D-1L · Real Betis Balompié 7W-2D-1L (last 10). Goal differential per game: Borussia Dortmund +0.7, Real Betis Balompié +0.6. Form depth Borussia Dortmund: avg 1.7 goals scored, 1.0 conceded per game (3/4 at home, 3/6 on the road). Real Betis Balompié: avg 2.0 goals scored, 1.4 conceded per game (5/6 at home, 2/4 on the road). Goals expectation Model expects ~3.0 total goals (Borussia Dortmund 1.5, Real Betis Balompié 1.5) — above the 2.5-goal mid line. Calibration Raw model: 51.1% home · Platt-calibrated up to 53.0% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. Context Borussia Dortmund has 3 more days of rest (Borussia Dortmund 59d, Real Betis Balompié 56d).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.