PAE AEK scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities PAE AEK 13.6% · Draw 23.5% · Real Madrid CF 62.9% Why Real Madrid CF is favoured Real Madrid CF's Elo (1766) is +272 over PAE AEK (1493); low confidence. Recent: PAE AEK 1W-0D-2L · Real Madrid CF 9W-0D-1L (last 10). Goal differential per game: PAE AEK -1.7, Real Madrid CF +1.6. Form depth PAE AEK: avg 1.0 goals scored, 2.7 conceded per game (1/1 at home, 0/2 on the road). Real Madrid CF: avg 2.8 goals scored, 1.2 conceded per game (5/5 at home, 4/5 on the road). PAE AEK on a 2-match losing streak. Real Madrid CF on a 6-match winning streak. Goals expectation Model expects ~3.8 total goals (PAE AEK 1.1, Real Madrid CF 2.7) — above the 2.5-goal mid line. But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (10%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Head-to-head 2 prior meetings — PAE AEK 0W, 2D, Real Madrid CF 0W (draws are common). Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (10% sample-size confidence); headline number is sharper than the underlying signal — treat it as directional, not absolute.