Cardiff City FC scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Cardiff City FC 39.7% · Draw 25.2% · West Ham United FC 35.1% Why Cardiff City FC is favoured Elo essentially level (1513 vs 1508) — winner depends on context. Recent: Cardiff City FC 3W-2D-5L · West Ham United FC 6W-2D-2L (last 10). Goal differential per game: Cardiff City FC -0.1, West Ham United FC +1.6. Form depth Cardiff City FC: avg 1.4 goals scored, 1.5 conceded per game (3/4 at home, 0/6 on the road). West Ham United FC: avg 2.9 goals scored, 1.3 conceded per game (3/6 at home, 3/4 on the road). West Ham United FC on a 2-match losing streak. Goals expectation Model expects ~3.6 total goals (Cardiff City FC 1.4, West Ham United FC 2.2) — above the 2.5-goal mid line. But — counter-arguments West Ham United FC has a stronger recent record (60% vs 30%) — model favours Cardiff City FC on Elo + home advantage despite the form gap. Elo confidence is low (20%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Head-to-head 1 prior meetings — Cardiff City FC 0W, 1D, West Ham United FC 0W (draws are common). Calibration Raw model: 41.9% home · Platt-calibrated down to 39.7% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (20% sample-size confidence); this is a low-conviction match overall — bet only with strong reason from outside the model.