Wrexham AFC scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Wrexham AFC 47.8% · Draw 24.3% · Middlesbrough FC 27.9% Why Wrexham AFC is favoured Wrexham AFC's Elo (1497) is +15 over Middlesbrough FC (1482); low confidence. Recent: Wrexham AFC 3W-3D-4L · Middlesbrough FC 6W-4D-0L (last 10). Goal differential per game: Wrexham AFC -0.3, Middlesbrough FC +1.1. Form depth Wrexham AFC: avg 1.2 goals scored, 1.5 conceded per game (2/4 at home, 1/6 on the road). Middlesbrough FC: avg 2.4 goals scored, 1.3 conceded per game (3/5 at home, 3/5 on the road). Wrexham AFC on a 2-match losing streak. Middlesbrough FC on a 2-match winning streak. Goals expectation Model expects ~3.2 total goals (Wrexham AFC 1.3, Middlesbrough FC 1.9) — above the 2.5-goal mid line. But — counter-arguments Middlesbrough FC has a stronger recent record (60% vs 30%) — model favours Wrexham AFC on Elo + home advantage despite the form gap. Elo confidence is low (25%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Head-to-head 2 prior meetings — Wrexham AFC 0W, 2D, Middlesbrough FC 0W (draws are common). Last 2: 2-2, 1-1. Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (25% sample-size confidence); this is a low-conviction match overall — bet only with strong reason from outside the model.