Estudiantes de La Plata scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Estudiantes de La Plata 53.8% · Draw 22.4% · CR Flamengo 23.7% Why Estudiantes de La Plata is favoured CR Flamengo's Elo (1627) is +96 over Estudiantes de La Plata (1531); low confidence. Recent: Estudiantes de La Plata 4W-5D-1L · CR Flamengo 7W-2D-1L (last 10). Goal differential per game: Estudiantes de La Plata +0.5, CR Flamengo +1.0. Form depth Estudiantes de La Plata: avg 1.2 goals scored, 0.7 conceded per game (2/5 at home, 2/5 on the road). CR Flamengo: avg 1.7 goals scored, 0.7 conceded per game (5/6 at home, 2/4 on the road). Goals expectation Model expects ~2.1 total goals (Estudiantes de La Plata 0.9, CR Flamengo 1.2) — below 2.5. But — counter-arguments CR Flamengo has a stronger recent record (70% vs 40%) — model favours Estudiantes de La Plata on Elo + home advantage despite the form gap. Head-to-head 1 prior meetings — Estudiantes de La Plata 0W, 1D, CR Flamengo 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 1-0, 1-1, 3-4. Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (35% sample-size confidence); headline number is sharper than the underlying signal — treat it as directional, not absolute.