Venezia FC scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Venezia FC 30.3% · Draw 22.7% · Udinese Calcio 47.0% Why Udinese Calcio is favoured Udinese Calcio's Elo (1442) is +85 over Venezia FC (1357); high confidence. Recent: Venezia FC 1W-0D-9L · Udinese Calcio 1W-2D-7L (last 10). Goal differential per game: Venezia FC -1.4, Udinese Calcio -1.2. Form depth Venezia FC: avg 0.6 goals scored, 2.0 conceded per game (1/5 at home, 0/5 on the road). Udinese Calcio: avg 1.1 goals scored, 2.3 conceded per game (0/6 at home, 1/4 on the road). Venezia FC on a 3-match losing streak. Goals expectation Model expects ~3.0 total goals (Venezia FC 1.4, Udinese Calcio 1.6) — above the 2.5-goal mid line. Head-to-head 1 prior meetings — Venezia FC 0W, 1D, Udinese Calcio 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 3-2, 3-2, 1-2. Calibration Raw model: 33.9% home · Platt-calibrated down to 30.3% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches.