Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Draw
To win
+$98.80
Total payout
$118.80
Joint prob
22.5%
Combined odds
5.94
Fair odds
4.45
Edge
+33.5%
Expected value: +$6.70 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$6.70 on a $20 stake.
Joint prob 5% lower than naïve — books overprice this kind of pair.
Expected value: $-1.60 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
LASK Linz scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 15.9% · fair market: 12.7% · edge: +25.0%
Model probabilities LASK Linz 61.7% · Draw 22.5% · ŠK Slovan Bratislava 15.9% Why LASK Linz is favoured LASK Linz's Elo (1479) is +97 over ŠK Slovan Bratislava (1382); low confidence. Recent: LASK Linz 1W-0D-2L · ŠK Slovan Bratislava 0W-0D-3L (last 3). Goal differential per game: LASK Linz -1.0, ŠK Slovan Bratislava -4.0. Form depth LASK Linz: avg 2.0 goals scored, 3.0 conceded per game (0/1 at home, 1/2 on the road). ŠK Slovan Bratislava: avg 0.3 goals scored, 4.3 conceded per game (0/1 at home, 0/2 on the road). ŠK Slovan Bratislava on a 3-match losing streak. Goals expectation Model expects ~4.8 total goals (LASK Linz 3.2, ŠK Slovan Bratislava 1.7) — above the 2.5-goal mid line. But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (10%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. +EV vs market draw: model 22.5% vs market 16.3% (edge +38.2%, suggested Kelly +6.8% of bankroll). away: model 15.9% vs market 12.7% (edge +25.0%, suggested Kelly +3.1% of bankroll). Context LASK Linz has 2 more days of rest (LASK Linz 56d, ŠK Slovan Bratislava 54d). Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (10% sample-size confidence); headline number is sharper than the underlying signal — treat it as directional, not absolute.
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.