SK Slavia Praha scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities SK Slavia Praha 6.8% · Draw 24.3% · Arsenal FC 68.8% Why Arsenal FC is favoured Arsenal FC's Elo (1834) is +388 over SK Slavia Praha (1446); medium confidence. Recent: SK Slavia Praha 0W-1D-2L · Arsenal FC 8W-1D-1L (last 10). Goal differential per game: SK Slavia Praha -1.0, Arsenal FC +0.9. Form depth SK Slavia Praha: avg 1.3 goals scored, 2.3 conceded per game (0/1 at home, 0/2 on the road). Arsenal FC: avg 1.6 goals scored, 0.7 conceded per game (4/4 at home, 4/6 on the road). Arsenal FC on a 2-match winning streak. Goals expectation Model expects ~3.0 total goals (SK Slavia Praha 1.0, Arsenal FC 2.0) — above the 2.5-goal mid line. Head-to-head 2 prior meetings — SK Slavia Praha 0W, 2D, Arsenal FC 0W (draws are common). Last 1: 0-3. Context Arsenal FC has 4 more days of rest (SK Slavia Praha 54d, Arsenal FC 58d). Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (45% sample-size confidence); headline number is sharper than the underlying signal — treat it as directional, not absolute.
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.