FC Porto scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities FC Porto 49.2% · Draw 22.3% · SSC Napoli 28.5% Why FC Porto is favoured SSC Napoli's Elo (1627) is +48 over FC Porto (1578); medium confidence. Recent: FC Porto 7W-0D-3L · SSC Napoli 4W-2D-4L (last 10). Goal differential per game: FC Porto +1.1, SSC Napoli +0.2. Form depth FC Porto: avg 2.1 goals scored, 1.0 conceded per game (3/5 at home, 4/5 on the road). SSC Napoli: avg 1.7 goals scored, 1.5 conceded per game (3/5 at home, 1/5 on the road). FC Porto on a 2-match winning streak. Goals expectation Model expects ~3.2 total goals (FC Porto 1.8, SSC Napoli 1.4) — above the 2.5-goal mid line. Calibration Raw model: 47.9% home · Platt-calibrated up to 49.2% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches.
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.