Viking FK scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Viking FK 50.5% · Draw 22.2% · Sabah FK 27.3% Why Viking FK is favoured Viking FK's Elo (1498) is +12 over Sabah FK (1485); low confidence. Recent: Viking FK 0W-1D-2L · Sabah FK 1W-0D-2L (last 3). Goal differential per game: Viking FK -1.3, Sabah FK -1.0. Form depth Viking FK: avg 1.7 goals scored, 3.0 conceded per game (0/1 at home, 0/2 on the road). Sabah FK: avg 1.0 goals scored, 2.0 conceded per game (1/2 at home, 0/1 on the road). Goals expectation Model expects ~3.8 total goals (Viking FK 1.8, Sabah FK 2.0) — above the 2.5-goal mid line. But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (5%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Calibration Raw model: 48.4% home · Platt-calibrated up to 50.5% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. Context Viking FK has 1 more day of rest (Viking FK 55d, Sabah FK 54d). Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (5% sample-size confidence); headline number is sharper than the underlying signal — treat it as directional, not absolute.
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.