RB Leipzig scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities RB Leipzig 27.3% · Draw 22.7% · Manchester City FC 50.0% Why Manchester City FC is favoured Manchester City FC's Elo (1725) is +127 over RB Leipzig (1598); high confidence. Recent: RB Leipzig 5W-0D-5L · Manchester City FC 7W-0D-3L (last 10). Goal differential per game: RB Leipzig +0.3, Manchester City FC +1.0. Form depth RB Leipzig: avg 2.2 goals scored, 1.9 conceded per game (4/4 at home, 1/6 on the road). Manchester City FC: avg 2.3 goals scored, 1.3 conceded per game (4/6 at home, 3/4 on the road). RB Leipzig on a 2-match winning streak. Manchester City FC on a 2-match losing streak. Goals expectation Model expects ~3.8 total goals (RB Leipzig 1.8, Manchester City FC 2.1) — above the 2.5-goal mid line. Head-to-head 1 prior meetings — RB Leipzig 0W, 1D, Manchester City FC 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 3-2, 1-3, 7-0.
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.