Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · AS Roma
To win
+$41.80
Total payout
$61.80
Joint prob
34.2%
Combined odds
3.09
Fair odds
2.92
Edge
+5.8%
Expected value: +$1.17 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$1.17 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$0.65 on a $20 stake.
Joint prob 9% lower than naïve — books overprice this kind of pair.
Expected value: +$13.91 on a $20 stake.
Independence-assumption math. Same-match legs are correlated — the true joint can be higher OR lower than the product. Apply judgment before taking it.
Expected value: +$14.63 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Manchester United FC scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 34.2% · fair market: 31.4% · edge: +9.1%
Model probabilities Manchester United FC 43.4% · Draw 22.4% · AS Roma 34.2% Why Manchester United FC is favoured AS Roma's Elo (1670) is +53 over Manchester United FC (1617); high confidence. Recent: Manchester United FC 1W-4D-5L · AS Roma 5W-4D-1L (last 10). Goal differential per game: Manchester United FC -0.7, AS Roma +1.2. Form depth Manchester United FC: avg 1.0 goals scored, 1.7 conceded per game (1/4 at home, 0/6 on the road). AS Roma: avg 2.6 goals scored, 1.4 conceded per game (3/5 at home, 2/5 on the road). Manchester United FC on a 3-match losing streak. AS Roma on a 2-match winning streak. Goals expectation Model expects ~3.3 total goals (Manchester United FC 1.2, AS Roma 2.1) — above the 2.5-goal mid line. But — counter-arguments AS Roma has a stronger recent record (50% vs 10%) — model favours Manchester United FC on Elo + home advantage despite the form gap. Head-to-head 1 prior meetings — Manchester United FC 0W, 1D, AS Roma 0W (draws are common). Calibration Raw model: 42.0% home · Platt-calibrated up to 43.4% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 34.2% vs market 31.4% (edge +9.1%, suggested Kelly +2.8% of bankroll). Context Manchester United FC has 5 more days of rest (Manchester United FC 58d, AS Roma 53d).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.