Lille OSC scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Lille OSC 63.8% · Draw 22.5% · Galatasaray SK 13.7% Why Lille OSC is favoured Lille OSC's Elo (1597) is +99 over Galatasaray SK (1498); high confidence. Recent: Lille OSC 4W-2D-3L · Galatasaray SK 0W-0D-2L (last 9). Goal differential per game: Lille OSC +0.1, Galatasaray SK -2.5. Form depth Lille OSC: avg 1.3 goals scored, 1.2 conceded per game (2/5 at home, 2/4 on the road). Galatasaray SK: avg 1.0 goals scored, 3.5 conceded per game (0/1 at home, 0/1 on the road). Galatasaray SK on a 2-match losing streak. Context Lille OSC has 18 more days of rest (Lille OSC 59d, Galatasaray SK 41d).