Paris Saint-Germain FC scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Paris Saint-Germain FC 88.3% · Draw 10.2% · ŠK Slovan Bratislava 1.5% Why Paris Saint-Germain FC is favoured Paris Saint-Germain FC's Elo (1817) is +422 over ŠK Slovan Bratislava (1394); medium confidence. Recent: Paris Saint-Germain FC 0W-2D-1L · ŠK Slovan Bratislava no recent form on file (last 3). Form depth Paris Saint-Germain FC: avg 1.7 goals scored, 2.0 conceded per game (0/1 at home, 0/2 on the road). Calibration Raw model: 83.2% home · Platt-calibrated up to 88.3% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (40% sample-size confidence); headline number is sharper than the underlying signal — treat it as directional, not absolute.