Everton FC scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Everton FC 51.8% · Draw 24.4% · Coventry City FC 23.8% Why Everton FC is favoured Elo essentially level (1522 vs 1516) — winner depends on context. Recent: Everton FC 3W-4D-2L · Coventry City FC 3W-0D-6L (last 9). Goal differential per game: Everton FC +0.0, Coventry City FC -0.8. Form depth Everton FC: avg 1.0 goals scored, 1.0 conceded per game (2/4 at home, 1/5 on the road). Coventry City FC: avg 1.0 goals scored, 1.8 conceded per game (2/5 at home, 1/4 on the road). Goals expectation Model expects ~2.4 total goals (Everton FC 1.4, Coventry City FC 1.0) — right around 2.5. But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (10%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Head-to-head 3 prior meetings — Everton FC 0W, 3D, Coventry City FC 0W (draws are common). Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (10% sample-size confidence); headline number is sharper than the underlying signal — treat it as directional, not absolute.