Casa Pia AC scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Casa Pia AC 12.1% · Draw 17.6% · Sporting Clube de Portugal 70.3% Why Sporting Clube de Portugal is favoured Sporting Clube de Portugal's Elo (1675) is +232 over Casa Pia AC (1443); medium confidence. Recent: Casa Pia AC 2W-1D-6L · Sporting Clube de Portugal 6W-2D-2L (last 10). Goal differential per game: Casa Pia AC -1.3, Sporting Clube de Portugal +1.2. Form depth Casa Pia AC: avg 0.6 goals scored, 1.9 conceded per game (0/4 at home, 2/5 on the road). Sporting Clube de Portugal: avg 2.3 goals scored, 1.1 conceded per game (3/6 at home, 3/4 on the road). Sporting Clube de Portugal on a 2-match losing streak. Goals expectation Model expects ~2.9 total goals (Casa Pia AC 0.8, Sporting Clube de Portugal 2.1) — above the 2.5-goal mid line. Calibration Raw model: 17.4% home · Platt-calibrated down to 12.1% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches.