FC Famalicão scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities FC Famalicão 32.9% · Draw 23.2% · FC Arouca 44.0% Why FC Arouca is favoured FC Arouca's Elo (1542) is +69 over FC Famalicão (1473); medium confidence. Recent: FC Famalicão 2W-4D-4L · FC Arouca 6W-2D-2L (last 10). Goal differential per game: FC Famalicão +0.0, FC Arouca +0.6. Form depth FC Famalicão: avg 1.4 goals scored, 1.4 conceded per game (0/4 at home, 2/6 on the road). FC Arouca: avg 1.3 goals scored, 0.7 conceded per game (4/5 at home, 2/5 on the road). FC Arouca on a 3-match winning streak. Goals expectation Model expects ~2.4 total goals (FC Famalicão 1.0, FC Arouca 1.4) — right around 2.5. Head-to-head 3 prior meetings — FC Famalicão 0W, 3D, FC Arouca 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 1-0, 1-1, 1-2. Calibration Raw model: 36.0% home · Platt-calibrated down to 32.9% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (45% sample-size confidence); this is a low-conviction match overall — bet only with strong reason from outside the model.