Sport Lisboa e Benfica scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Sport Lisboa e Benfica 65.0% · Draw 20.2% · FC Alverca 14.8% Why Sport Lisboa e Benfica is favoured Sport Lisboa e Benfica's Elo (1588) is +108 over FC Alverca (1480); low confidence. Recent: Sport Lisboa e Benfica 7W-1D-1L · FC Alverca 3W-2D-4L (last 9). Goal differential per game: Sport Lisboa e Benfica +2.0, FC Alverca +0.0. Form depth Sport Lisboa e Benfica: avg 2.9 goals scored, 0.9 conceded per game (3/4 at home, 4/5 on the road). FC Alverca: avg 1.4 goals scored, 1.4 conceded per game (1/5 at home, 2/4 on the road). Sport Lisboa e Benfica on a 2-match winning streak. Goals expectation Model expects ~3.3 total goals (Sport Lisboa e Benfica 2.2, FC Alverca 1.2) — above the 2.5-goal mid line. But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (30%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Calibration Raw model: 63.4% home · Platt-calibrated up to 65.0% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (30% sample-size confidence); headline number is sharper than the underlying signal — treat it as directional, not absolute.