FC Porto scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities FC Porto 68.5% · Draw 18.5% · GD Estoril Praia 12.9% Why FC Porto is favoured FC Porto's Elo (1578) is +153 over GD Estoril Praia (1425); medium confidence. Recent: FC Porto 7W-0D-3L · GD Estoril Praia 0W-2D-7L (last 10). Goal differential per game: FC Porto +0.9, GD Estoril Praia -1.1. Form depth FC Porto: avg 1.9 goals scored, 1.0 conceded per game (3/5 at home, 4/5 on the road). GD Estoril Praia: avg 0.6 goals scored, 1.7 conceded per game (0/5 at home, 0/4 on the road). GD Estoril Praia on a 4-match losing streak. Goals expectation Model expects ~2.6 total goals (FC Porto 1.8, GD Estoril Praia 0.8) — right around 2.5. Head-to-head 1 prior meetings — FC Porto 0W, 1D, GD Estoril Praia 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 1-3, 1-0, 1-2. Calibration Raw model: 66.6% home · Platt-calibrated up to 68.5% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches.