Deportivo Alavés scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Deportivo Alavés 51.4% · Draw 24.6% · Málaga CF 23.9% Why Deportivo Alavés is favoured Elo essentially level (1476 vs 1477) — winner depends on context. Recent: Deportivo Alavés 3W-2D-4L · Málaga CF 0W-4D-5L (last 9). Goal differential per game: Deportivo Alavés +0.3, Málaga CF -1.3. Form depth Deportivo Alavés: avg 1.4 goals scored, 1.1 conceded per game (3/5 at home, 0/4 on the road). Málaga CF: avg 0.7 goals scored, 2.0 conceded per game (0/5 at home, 0/4 on the road). Deportivo Alavés on a 2-match losing streak. Goals expectation Model expects ~2.6 total goals (Deportivo Alavés 1.7, Málaga CF 0.9) — right around 2.5. But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (25%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Head-to-head 3 prior meetings — Deportivo Alavés 0W, 3D, Málaga CF 0W (draws are common). Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (25% sample-size confidence); headline number is sharper than the underlying signal — treat it as directional, not absolute.