Sevilla FC scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Sevilla FC 46.5% · Draw 24.9% · Deportivo Alavés 28.6% Why Sevilla FC is favoured Elo essentially level (1476 vs 1476) — winner depends on context. Recent: Sevilla FC 4W-2D-4L · Deportivo Alavés 2W-3D-5L (last 10). Goal differential per game: Sevilla FC -0.3, Deportivo Alavés -0.5. Form depth Sevilla FC: avg 1.5 goals scored, 1.8 conceded per game (2/4 at home, 2/6 on the road). Deportivo Alavés: avg 1.2 goals scored, 1.7 conceded per game (2/5 at home, 0/5 on the road). Goals expectation Model expects ~3.1 total goals (Sevilla FC 1.6, Deportivo Alavés 1.5) — above the 2.5-goal mid line. Head-to-head 4 prior meetings — Sevilla FC 0W, 4D, Deportivo Alavés 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 1-1, 1-2, 1-1. Calibration Raw model: 47.6% home · Platt-calibrated down to 46.5% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches.