Real Madrid CF scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Real Madrid CF 67.7% · Draw 15.9% · Málaga CF 16.4% Why Real Madrid CF is favoured Real Madrid CF's Elo (1752) is +260 over Málaga CF (1491); low confidence. Recent: Real Madrid CF 2W-0D-0L · Málaga CF 0W-1D-1L (last 2). Goal differential per game: Real Madrid CF +2.0, Málaga CF -1.0. Form depth Real Madrid CF: avg 3.0 goals scored, 1.0 conceded per game (1/1 at home, 1/1 on the road). Málaga CF: avg 0.5 goals scored, 1.5 conceded per game (0/1 at home, 0/1 on the road). Real Madrid CF on a 2-match winning streak. But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (10%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Head-to-head 2 prior meetings — Real Madrid CF 0W, 2D, Málaga CF 0W (draws are common). Calibration Raw model: 75.3% home · Platt-calibrated down to 67.7% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. Context Málaga CF has 3 more days of rest (Real Madrid CF 7d, Málaga CF 10d). Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (10% sample-size confidence); headline number is sharper than the underlying signal — treat it as directional, not absolute.