Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · 1. FC Köln
To win
+$105.80
Total payout
$125.80
Joint prob
24.1%
Combined odds
6.29
Fair odds
4.16
Edge
+51.3%
Expected value: +$10.25 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$10.25 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$4.29 on a $20 stake.
Joint prob 4% lower than naïve — books overprice this kind of pair.
Expected value: +$94.86 on a $20 stake.
Independence-assumption math. Same-match legs are correlated — the true joint can be higher OR lower than the product. Apply judgment before taking it.
Expected value: +$89.82 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
VfB Stuttgart scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 24.1% · fair market: 15.4% · edge: +56.4%
Model probabilities VfB Stuttgart 53.9% · Draw 22.0% · 1. FC Köln 24.1% Why VfB Stuttgart is favoured VfB Stuttgart's Elo (1600) is +146 over 1. FC Köln (1454); high confidence. Recent: VfB Stuttgart 0W-0D-1L · 1. FC Köln 1W-0D-0L (last 1). Goal differential per game: VfB Stuttgart -4.0, 1. FC Köln +1.0. Form depth VfB Stuttgart: avg 1.0 goals scored, 5.0 conceded per game (0/1 on the road). 1. FC Köln: avg 3.0 goals scored, 2.0 conceded per game (1/1 at home). Head-to-head 2 prior meetings — VfB Stuttgart 0W, 2D, 1. FC Köln 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 3-1, 1-2, 1-1. Calibration Raw model: 60.4% home · Platt-calibrated down to 53.9% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 24.1% vs market 18.0% (edge +33.7%, suggested Kelly +6.6% of bankroll). draw: model 22.0% vs market 19.4% (edge +13.8%, suggested Kelly +2.5% of bankroll). Context VfB Stuttgart has 1 more day of rest (VfB Stuttgart 6d, 1. FC Köln 5d).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.