Sparta Rotterdam scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Sparta Rotterdam 45.9% · Draw 28.9% · PEC Zwolle 25.2% Why Sparta Rotterdam is favoured Sparta Rotterdam's Elo (1505) is +21 over PEC Zwolle (1484); low confidence. Recent: Sparta Rotterdam 1W-1D-2L · PEC Zwolle 1W-0D-3L (last 4). Goal differential per game: Sparta Rotterdam +0.0, PEC Zwolle -1.0. Form depth Sparta Rotterdam: avg 1.8 goals scored, 1.8 conceded per game (0/2 at home, 1/2 on the road). PEC Zwolle: avg 1.0 goals scored, 2.0 conceded per game (0/2 at home, 1/2 on the road). Goals expectation Model expects ~3.3 total goals (Sparta Rotterdam 1.9, PEC Zwolle 1.4) — above the 2.5-goal mid line. But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (20%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Head-to-head 3 prior meetings — Sparta Rotterdam 0W, 3D, PEC Zwolle 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 1-1, 1-0, 1-1. Calibration Raw model: 52.2% home · Platt-calibrated down to 45.9% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. Context Sparta Rotterdam has 1 more day of rest (Sparta Rotterdam 26d, PEC Zwolle 25d). Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (20% sample-size confidence); this is a low-conviction match overall — bet only with strong reason from outside the model.