Rayo Vallecano de Madrid scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Rayo Vallecano de Madrid 40.5% · Draw 29.4% · Real Racing Club de Santander 30.1% Why Rayo Vallecano de Madrid is favoured Real Racing Club de Santander's Elo (1500) is +23 over Rayo Vallecano de Madrid (1477); low confidence. Recent: Rayo Vallecano de Madrid 0W-1D-2L · Real Racing Club de Santander 1W-1D-1L (last 3). Goal differential per game: Rayo Vallecano de Madrid -1.3, Real Racing Club de Santander +0.0. Form depth Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: avg 1.3 goals scored, 2.7 conceded per game (0/1 at home, 0/2 on the road). Real Racing Club de Santander: avg 1.7 goals scored, 1.7 conceded per game (1/2 at home, 0/1 on the road). Goals expectation Model expects ~3.7 total goals (Rayo Vallecano de Madrid 1.5, Real Racing Club de Santander 2.2) — above the 2.5-goal mid line. But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (15%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Head-to-head 2 prior meetings — Rayo Vallecano de Madrid 0W, 2D, Real Racing Club de Santander 0W (draws are common). Calibration Raw model: 42.8% home · Platt-calibrated down to 40.5% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. Context Rayo Vallecano de Madrid has 1 more day of rest (Rayo Vallecano de Madrid 20d, Real Racing Club de Santander 19d). Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (15% sample-size confidence); this is a low-conviction match overall — bet only with strong reason from outside the model.