Real Sociedad de Fútbol scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Real Sociedad de Fútbol 41.9% · Draw 28.5% · RC Celta de Vigo 29.6% Why Real Sociedad de Fútbol is favoured RC Celta de Vigo's Elo (1514) is +37 over Real Sociedad de Fútbol (1477); high confidence. Recent: Real Sociedad de Fútbol 1W-0D-2L · RC Celta de Vigo 0W-1D-2L (last 3). Goal differential per game: Real Sociedad de Fútbol -1.0, RC Celta de Vigo -1.0. Form depth Real Sociedad de Fútbol: avg 1.0 goals scored, 2.0 conceded per game (1/1 at home, 0/2 on the road). RC Celta de Vigo: avg 0.3 goals scored, 1.3 conceded per game (0/2 at home, 0/1 on the road). RC Celta de Vigo on a 2-match losing streak. Goals expectation Model expects ~2.3 total goals (Real Sociedad de Fútbol 1.2, RC Celta de Vigo 1.2) — right around 2.5. Head-to-head 3 prior meetings — Real Sociedad de Fútbol 0W, 3D, RC Celta de Vigo 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 3-1, 1-1, 0-1. Calibration Raw model: 44.6% home · Platt-calibrated down to 41.9% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. Context Real Sociedad de Fútbol has 1 more day of rest (Real Sociedad de Fútbol 12d, RC Celta de Vigo 11d).