Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Toulouse FC
To win
+$62.40
Total payout
$82.40
Joint prob
35.1%
Combined odds
4.12
Fair odds
2.85
Edge
+44.4%
Expected value: +$8.89 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$8.89 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$0.88 on a $20 stake.
Joint prob 10% lower than naïve — books overprice this kind of pair.
Expected value: +$8.54 on a $20 stake.
Joint probability uses the model's score-grid correlation for the home + btts pair (not independent). Other legs multiplied independently.
Expected value: $-10.64 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Toulouse FC scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 35.1% · fair market: 23.6% · edge: +48.6%
Model probabilities Toulouse FC 35.1% · Draw 26.6% · Lille OSC 38.4% Why Lille OSC is favoured Lille OSC's Elo (1619) is +94 over Toulouse FC (1525); high confidence. Recent: Toulouse FC 0W-1D-1L · Lille OSC 1W-1D-0L (last 2). Goal differential per game: Toulouse FC -1.0, Lille OSC +1.0. Form depth Toulouse FC: avg 1.0 goals scored, 2.0 conceded per game (0/1 at home, 0/1 on the road). Lille OSC: avg 2.0 goals scored, 1.0 conceded per game (0/1 at home, 1/1 on the road). Head-to-head 1 prior meetings — Toulouse FC 0W, 1D, Lille OSC 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 0-4, 2-1, 1-2. Calibration Raw model: 31.3% home · Platt-calibrated up to 35.1% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market home: model 35.1% vs market 24.1% (edge +45.7%, suggested Kelly +13.6% of bankroll). Context Toulouse FC has 1 more day of rest (Toulouse FC 11d, Lille OSC 10d).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.