Málaga CF scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Málaga CF 39.5% · Draw 30.2% · RC Deportivo La Coruña 30.2% Why Málaga CF is favoured Elo essentially level (1491 vs 1499) — winner depends on context. Recent: Málaga CF 0W-0D-1L · RC Deportivo La Coruña 0W-1D-0L (last 1). Goal differential per game: Málaga CF -2.0, RC Deportivo La Coruña +0.0. Form depth Málaga CF: avg 0.0 goals scored, 2.0 conceded per game (0/1 on the road). RC Deportivo La Coruña: avg 1.0 goals scored, 1.0 conceded per game (0/1 at home). But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (5%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Head-to-head 5 prior meetings — Málaga CF 0W, 5D, RC Deportivo La Coruña 0W (draws are common). Calibration Raw model: 41.6% home · Platt-calibrated down to 39.5% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. Context RC Deportivo La Coruña has 2 more days of rest (Málaga CF 4d, RC Deportivo La Coruña 6d). Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (5% sample-size confidence); this is a low-conviction match overall — bet only with strong reason from outside the model.