CD Coquimbo Unido scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities CD Coquimbo Unido 53.6% · Draw 20.6% · CA Platense 25.8% Why CD Coquimbo Unido is favoured Elo essentially level (1510 vs 1505) — winner depends on context. Recent: CD Coquimbo Unido 3W-2D-2L · CA Platense 3W-2D-2L (last 7). Goal differential per game: CD Coquimbo Unido +0.3, CA Platense +0.1. Form depth CD Coquimbo Unido: avg 1.3 goals scored, 1.0 conceded per game (2/3 at home, 1/4 on the road). CA Platense: avg 1.3 goals scored, 1.1 conceded per game (1/4 at home, 2/3 on the road). Goals expectation Model expects ~2.4 total goals (CD Coquimbo Unido 1.2, CA Platense 1.1) — right around 2.5. But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (15%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Head-to-head 1 prior meetings — CD Coquimbo Unido 0W, 1D, CA Platense 0W (draws are common). Last 1: 1-1. Calibration Raw model: 49.1% home · Platt-calibrated up to 53.6% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (15% sample-size confidence); headline number is sharper than the underlying signal — treat it as directional, not absolute.