CD Universidad Católica scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities CD Universidad Católica 56.7% · Draw 20.3% · Estudiantes de La Plata 23.0% Why CD Universidad Católica is favoured CD Universidad Católica's Elo (1523) is +22 over Estudiantes de La Plata (1502); low confidence. Recent: CD Universidad Católica 4W-2D-1L · Estudiantes de La Plata 2W-4D-1L (last 7). Goal differential per game: CD Universidad Católica +0.6, Estudiantes de La Plata +0.1. Form depth CD Universidad Católica: avg 1.3 goals scored, 0.7 conceded per game (1/3 at home, 3/4 on the road). Estudiantes de La Plata: avg 1.0 goals scored, 0.9 conceded per game (2/4 at home, 0/3 on the road). Goals expectation Model expects ~1.9 total goals (CD Universidad Católica 1.1, Estudiantes de La Plata 0.9) — below 2.5. But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (20%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Head-to-head 1 prior meetings — CD Universidad Católica 0W, 1D, Estudiantes de La Plata 0W (draws are common). Last 1: 1-1. Calibration Raw model: 51.6% home · Platt-calibrated up to 56.7% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (20% sample-size confidence); headline number is sharper than the underlying signal — treat it as directional, not absolute.