CAR Independiente del Valle scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities CAR Independiente del Valle 35.7% · Draw 19.3% · CD Tolima 44.9% Why CD Tolima is favoured CAR Independiente del Valle's Elo (1516) is +17 over CD Tolima (1499); low confidence. Recent: CAR Independiente del Valle 4W-1D-1L · CD Tolima 5W-2D-3L (last 10). Goal differential per game: CAR Independiente del Valle +0.8, CD Tolima +0.5. Form depth CAR Independiente del Valle: avg 1.8 goals scored, 1.0 conceded per game (3/3 at home, 1/3 on the road). CD Tolima: avg 1.3 goals scored, 0.8 conceded per game (4/5 at home, 1/5 on the road). CAR Independiente del Valle on a 2-match winning streak. Goals expectation Model expects ~2.5 total goals (CAR Independiente del Valle 1.3, CD Tolima 1.1) — right around 2.5. But — counter-arguments CAR Independiente del Valle has a stronger recent record (67% vs 50%) — model favours CD Tolima on Elo despite CAR Independiente del Valle's form. Elo confidence is low (15%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Head-to-head 1 prior meetings — CAR Independiente del Valle 0W, 1D, CD Tolima 0W (draws are common). Last 2: 1-0, 2-2. Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (15% sample-size confidence); this is a low-conviction match overall — bet only with strong reason from outside the model.