CD Tolima scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities CD Tolima 60.5% · Draw 20.6% · CAR Independiente del Valle 18.9% Why CD Tolima is favoured CAR Independiente del Valle's Elo (1516) is +17 over CD Tolima (1499); low confidence. Recent: CD Tolima 5W-2D-3L · CAR Independiente del Valle 4W-1D-1L (last 10). Goal differential per game: CD Tolima +0.5, CAR Independiente del Valle +0.8. Form depth CD Tolima: avg 1.3 goals scored, 0.8 conceded per game (4/5 at home, 1/5 on the road). CAR Independiente del Valle: avg 1.8 goals scored, 1.0 conceded per game (3/3 at home, 1/3 on the road). CAR Independiente del Valle on a 2-match winning streak. Goals expectation Model expects ~2.5 total goals (CD Tolima 1.1, CAR Independiente del Valle 1.3) — right around 2.5. But — counter-arguments CAR Independiente del Valle has a stronger recent record (67% vs 50%) — model favours CD Tolima on Elo + home advantage despite the form gap. Elo confidence is low (15%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Head-to-head 1 prior meetings — CD Tolima 0W, 1D, CAR Independiente del Valle 0W (draws are common). Last 2: 1-0, 2-2. Calibration Raw model: 54.6% home · Platt-calibrated up to 60.5% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (15% sample-size confidence); headline number is sharper than the underlying signal — treat it as directional, not absolute.