Estudiantes de La Plata scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Estudiantes de La Plata 47.2% · Draw 19.7% · CD Universidad Católica 33.1% Why Estudiantes de La Plata is favoured CD Universidad Católica's Elo (1524) is +23 over Estudiantes de La Plata (1501); low confidence. Recent: Estudiantes de La Plata 2W-3D-1L · CD Universidad Católica 4W-1D-1L (last 6). Goal differential per game: Estudiantes de La Plata +0.2, CD Universidad Católica +0.7. Form depth Estudiantes de La Plata: avg 1.0 goals scored, 0.8 conceded per game (2/3 at home, 0/3 on the road). CD Universidad Católica: avg 1.3 goals scored, 0.7 conceded per game (1/3 at home, 3/3 on the road). CD Universidad Católica on a 2-match winning streak. Goals expectation Model expects ~1.9 total goals (Estudiantes de La Plata 0.8, CD Universidad Católica 1.1) — below 2.5. But — counter-arguments CD Universidad Católica has a stronger recent record (67% vs 33%) — model favours Estudiantes de La Plata on Elo + home advantage despite the form gap. Elo confidence is low (15%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Calibration Raw model: 44.3% home · Platt-calibrated up to 47.2% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (15% sample-size confidence); this is a low-conviction match overall — bet only with strong reason from outside the model.