AJ Auxerre scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities AJ Auxerre 50.9% · Draw 25.7% · Angers SCO 23.4% Why AJ Auxerre is favoured AJ Auxerre's Elo (1472) is +78 over Angers SCO (1394); high confidence. Recent: AJ Auxerre 0W-0D-1L · Angers SCO 0W-0D-1L (last 1). Goal differential per game: AJ Auxerre -3.0, Angers SCO -2.0. Form depth AJ Auxerre: avg 2.0 goals scored, 5.0 conceded per game (0/1 on the road). Angers SCO: avg 0.0 goals scored, 2.0 conceded per game (0/1 at home). Head-to-head 4 prior meetings — AJ Auxerre 0W, 4D, Angers SCO 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 3-1, 2-0, 2-0. Calibration Raw model: 58.3% home · Platt-calibrated down to 50.9% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. Context AJ Auxerre has 1 more day of rest (AJ Auxerre 7d, Angers SCO 6d).