Paris FC scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Paris FC 42.5% · Draw 29.0% · RC Strasbourg Alsace 28.5% Why Paris FC is favoured RC Strasbourg Alsace's Elo (1565) is +26 over Paris FC (1540); high confidence. Recent: Paris FC 2W-2D-0L · RC Strasbourg Alsace 2W-1D-1L (last 4). Goal differential per game: Paris FC +1.0, RC Strasbourg Alsace +0.3. Form depth Paris FC: avg 1.5 goals scored, 0.5 conceded per game (1/2 at home, 1/2 on the road). RC Strasbourg Alsace: avg 2.3 goals scored, 2.0 conceded per game (1/2 at home, 1/2 on the road). Goals expectation Model expects ~3.1 total goals (Paris FC 1.8, RC Strasbourg Alsace 1.4) — above the 2.5-goal mid line. Head-to-head 3 prior meetings — Paris FC 0W, 3D, RC Strasbourg Alsace 0W (draws are common). Last 2: 0-0, 2-3. Calibration Raw model: 46.0% home · Platt-calibrated down to 42.5% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. Context RC Strasbourg Alsace has 1 more day of rest (Paris FC 27d, RC Strasbourg Alsace 28d).