FC Lorient scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities FC Lorient 34.0% · Draw 23.4% · Paris FC 42.6% Why Paris FC is favoured Paris FC's Elo (1540) is +61 over FC Lorient (1479); high confidence. Recent: FC Lorient 1W-2D-2L · Paris FC 3W-2D-0L (last 5). Goal differential per game: FC Lorient -0.2, Paris FC +1.0. Form depth FC Lorient: avg 1.0 goals scored, 1.2 conceded per game (0/2 at home, 1/3 on the road). Paris FC: avg 1.6 goals scored, 0.6 conceded per game (2/3 at home, 1/2 on the road). Goals expectation Model expects ~2.2 total goals (FC Lorient 0.8, Paris FC 1.4) — below 2.5. Head-to-head 2 prior meetings — FC Lorient 0W, 2D, Paris FC 0W (draws are common). Last 2: 1-1, 2-0. Calibration Raw model: 37.0% home · Platt-calibrated down to 34.0% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches.