Paris FC scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Paris FC 39.9% · Draw 23.5% · Stade Rennais FC 1901 36.7% Why Paris FC is favoured Stade Rennais FC 1901's Elo (1579) is +51 over Paris FC (1528); high confidence. Recent: Paris FC 3W-2D-1L · Stade Rennais FC 1901 4W-1D-1L (last 6). Goal differential per game: Paris FC +0.7, Stade Rennais FC 1901 +0.3. Form depth Paris FC: avg 1.3 goals scored, 0.7 conceded per game (2/3 at home, 1/3 on the road). Stade Rennais FC 1901: avg 2.0 goals scored, 1.7 conceded per game (3/4 at home, 1/2 on the road). Goals expectation Model expects ~2.8 total goals (Paris FC 1.5, Stade Rennais FC 1901 1.3) — above the 2.5-goal mid line. But — counter-arguments Stade Rennais FC 1901 has a stronger recent record (67% vs 50%) — model favours Paris FC on Elo + home advantage despite the form gap. Head-to-head 2 prior meetings — Paris FC 0W, 2D, Stade Rennais FC 1901 0W (draws are common). Last 2: 2-1, 0-1. Calibration Raw model: 41.9% home · Platt-calibrated down to 39.9% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. Context Paris FC has 1 more day of rest (Paris FC 56d, Stade Rennais FC 1901 55d).